Intraday: Donald Trump’s Victory

 

Observations:

  • The last Black Swan of the year is the US Presidential Election.
  • Volatility as expected but in actively monitoring the model portfolio positions the following observations are seen.

Gold

  • Flight to safety in this commodity with an intraday high of 1337 (Fig. 1) as of 9:00 EST it is sitting around 1303 which is the bottom of the previous support which may or may not become resistance (Fig. 2)
2016-11-09-gold-intraday

Fig. 1 – Gold Intraday Hourly 0900 EST Nov 9 (Source: Interactive Brokers)

 

Fig. 2 - 2016-11-09 Gold Daily Price (Source: Interactive Brokers)

Fig. 2 – 2016-11-09 Gold Daily Price (Source: Interactive Brokers)

 

Biotech

  • This is also a sector of Model Beta and on the radar. The sector is seen to jump on pre-opening trade.
  • Article: Biotech Stocks Surge from Trump’s Victory (Source: StreetInsider.com)
  • Top holdings of Franklin Biotech Discovery Fund are:
    • Celgene Corp @ 9.29%. This stock has jumped 9% on the US open at 10:00 EST Nov 9th. (Fig. 3)
    • Biogen Inc @ 8.13%. This stock has jumped 6% on the US open at 10:00 EST Nov 9th. (Fig. 4)
2016-11-09 Celgene at US Open Nov 9 (Source: Interactive Brokers)

2016-11-09 Celgene at US market open Nov 9 10:00am EST (Source: Interactive Brokers)

 

Fig. 4 - Biogen Inc

Fig. 4 – Biogen Inc at US market open Nov 9 10:00am EST (Source: Interactive Brokers)

 

Conclusion

  • The volatility is high during this last BlackSwan of the year. This is especially seen in Gold and Biotech sectors which are sectors of interest.
  • BlackRock World Agriculture Fund has not seen as much volatility in its top holdings today: Monsanto, Syngenta, & Mosaic.
  • Other sectors such as Cash, Allocation, Balanced Bond etc. have both Model Alpha and Beta well positioned defensively which I believe is appropriate given the current market atmosphere.

 

Best,
Michael

Disclaimer