Very quickly over the last few months we have entered what my team defines as Bear Phase 1 and now in a Bear Phase 2 consolidation. The markets of interest are the developed ones with QE namely the US, Europe and Japan. I will pass you the charts here first with my rough illustration of where we are. Historically these bull and bear phases are quite discernable and shown in Figures 1 & 2 with the Hang Seng Index.
Click here to Download 2015-09 [MyPfund] Bear Phase 1&2 Identification.pdf [2.9MB]
Best,
Michael
Fig 1: Historic Hang Seng Bull Phases Defined (Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 2: Historic Hang Seng Bear Phases Defined (Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 3: Hang Seng Trendline Broken (Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 4: Hang Seng Bear Phase 1 & Start of Phase 2 Consolidation (Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 5: Fidelity China Focus Fund Exited 50% on Aug 20th & Sep 1st. Current Price is at similar levels
(Source: Fidelity.com.hk)
Fig 6: U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average Trendline Broken
(Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 7: Dow Jones Bear Phase 1 & 2 Identification
(Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 8: German DAX Composite Trendline Broken
(Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 9: German DAX Bear Phase 1 & 2 Identification
(Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 10: Fidelity EURO STOX 50 Exit on Aug 11th
(Source: Fidelity.com.hk)
Fig 11: Japan Nikkei Trendline Broken
(Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 12: Japan Nikkei Phase 1 Identification
(Source: Stockcharts.com)
Fig 13: Fidelity Japan Smaller Companies Exit on Aug 20th
(Source: Fidelity.com.hk)
